The Interaction of Strategy, Context, and Agency: Analyzing the Role of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashd al-Shaʿbi) in Iran’s Regional Policy in Iraq (2014–2026)

This article examines the role of the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) in advancing certain objectives of the regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Iraq, employing Brighi and Hill’s strategic-relational approach. Its main question is under what conditions and through what mechanisms this role has taken shape, and why it has undergone change across different periods. Using a qualitative, descriptive-analytical method, the study examines the variable relationship among Iran’s strategy, Iraq’s political-security and social context, and the agency of the groups constituting the Hashd across four historical periods: formation amid the ISIS crisis, institutionalization after 2016, the legitimacy crisis and the Tishreen protests, and developments after 7 October, the 12-Day War, and the Ramadan War. The findings indicate that the Hashd’s role cannot be explained solely through the model of a proxy force or an independent actor. Instead, the degree of overlap among Iran’s objectives, the constraints and opportunities of Iraq’s context, and the interests of different groups shapes the capacity for coordinated action in each period. The formation and consolidation of the Hashd created new security and political capacities, but at the same time raised questions about the authority of the Iraqi state, social legitimacy, and the risk of expanding conflict. The article argues that the consequences of actors’ actions also change the context and constrain or facilitate subsequent strategies.